Amine El Afrit

Finance executive with deep capital-markets experience. Research and applied work across corporate strategy, AI, digital assets and new economic infrastructure.

Based in Casablanca · A decade working in France · Lived and studied in Canada

My professional background combines capital markets, corporate finance and large-scale finance operations. I started in Investor Relations at Danone's Paris headquarters, where I learned how investors and analysts assess companies, how management communicates strategy and performance, and where the two can diverge. I later worked in derivatives and financing — including responsibility for a €6bn debt portfolio — which added a direct view of how markets price risk, liquidity and expectations.

Subsequent roles across Africa and EMEA broadened that experience into financing, capital allocation, leadership and multi-country execution. I am now actively engaged in building a multi-country Global Business Services model at a worldwide CX leader.

Alongside my professional work, I research and build around areas undergoing structural change: AI and autonomous agents, digital assets and monetary infrastructure, market structure, and decision systems. I am particularly interested in second-order effects — not simply what a new technology does, but what happens next: how incentives change, which intermediaries gain or lose relevance, how business models adapt, and where value migrates.

My approach is usually the same: understand the underlying mechanism, build or model it where possible, test the assumptions against evidence, and translate the result into implications for companies, markets or capital allocation. Some of that work is published; some remains working research; some became systems I use.

Some of this work has also moved beyond research. I have been closely involved in the design and launch of several digital-asset products that generated meaningful commercial revenue, which gave me a practical view of how incentives, distribution and market structure interact once a system is live. I also manage my own investment portfolio, where I apply parts of the same research process to real capital-allocation decisions.

Selected research

2024

Redesigning a labour-intensive business for the AI economy

A strategy project on how a global services business could move from using technology primarily to reduce costs toward using AI and technology as new sources of revenue. The work explored new products, operating models and a multi-year transformation path, while identifying where human capability could remain economically differentiated.

Published research · September 2024
2025–26

When software becomes the customer

Research into the second-order consequences of autonomous agents transacting directly with companies. Payments are only one layer; identity, authorisation, liability and enterprise access may become the harder problems. The broader question is how customer relationships, distribution and service economics change when part of the interface becomes machine-to-machine.

Working paper
2026

Can a synthetic society forecast collective behaviour?

An experiment in using populations of AI agents to model collective behaviour rather than asking a single model for a prediction. Synthetic individuals are given different attributes, information environments and decision contexts, then allowed to form independent choices whose aggregate signal can be tested against real outcomes. The broader question is whether agent-based societies can generate predictive information that simpler forecasting methods miss.

Research system · historical backtesting in progress
2025–26

Stablecoins beyond crypto

Research into stablecoins as financial infrastructure rather than an asset class: cross-border liquidity, settlement, counterparty structure, corporate cash management and sovereign-debt demand. The central question is which parts of today's financial intermediation become economically unnecessary if the settlement layer changes.

Working paper
2025–26

Building decision systems that can change their mind

A system designed to make research more accountable: preserving evidence, recording beliefs and uncertainty, defining in advance what would invalidate a thesis, and measuring what happened afterwards. The objective is not to automate judgement, but to make the process behind judgement more explicit and testable.

System, in use
2026

When AI inference starts behaving like a market

Research and tooling around OpenRouter to study inference as an emerging market: identical models supplied through different providers with different pricing, latency, reliability and cache economics. I built tools to observe those differences and investigate whether market-style pricing and execution inefficiencies emerge as inference becomes commoditised.

Research system · prototype in use
2024–26

Digital assets: from forecast to capital allocation

A multi-year research programme spanning digital-asset market structure, liquidity, derivatives, forecasting and portfolio construction. What began as a forecasting problem evolved into a broader investigation of how uncertainty, transaction costs, risk constraints and changing market regimes turn — or fail to turn — information into investable decisions.

System, in use
2024–26

Global liquidity and changing market regimes

Long-running research into how fiscal policy, central-bank balance sheets, credit conditions and funding markets propagate into asset prices — with particular attention to the moments when established relationships stop working and the underlying regime has changed.

Framework, maintained live
2025

When the market still values the old business model

A co-authored strategy and valuation note examining what happens when a company's economics begin to change faster than the models used to value it. The work explored why traditional sell-side frameworks anchored in labour-based revenues could fail to capture AI and intellectual-property optionality, and proposed a two-part valuation framework together with measurable KPIs that could make that optionality legible to investors.

Co-authored strategy & valuation note · 2025

Current lines of work

Decision systems

Systems that preserve evidence, track a thesis over time and make uncertainty explicit — as opposed to systems that answer and forget.

Agentic enterprise

How identity, authorisation, liability and enterprise access change when software begins acting directly on behalf of customers.

New financial infrastructure

Stablecoins, settlement rails and digital-asset market structure — and the second-order effects they may have on companies, intermediaries and capital flows.

More research

2026

Finding the industrial position before it is obvious

Working paper
2025–26

Casablanca market microstructure

Published analysis
2025

Morocco's energy security exposure

Published analysis
2025

An equity total return swap, reconstructed

Published analysis